Heavy Rains Delay Brazil's Coffee Harvest, Pushing Prices Higher

Coffee futures rose sharply on Monday on concern that heavy rain in Brazil will further slow the country's coffee harvest and tighten near-term supplies. September arabica closed up 3.43% and September ICE robusta gained 1.12%.

Harvest running behind

Safras & Mercado reported Brazil's 2026/27 harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year's 77% and the five-year average of 70%. The Cooxupe co-op, Brazil's largest arabica cooperative, put its members' harvest at 47.3% complete as of July 17, versus 59% a year earlier.

The delay traces to unseasonal rain. Somar Meteorologia recorded 32.4 mm of rain in Minas Gerais, Brazil's biggest coffee-growing region, in the week ended July 26. That is about 2,700% of the historical average for the period.

Tight stocks, big crop ahead

ICE-monitored arabica inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 292,810 bags, adding to the supply squeeze. The tightness cuts against a bearish longer-term picture: the USDA projects record global production of 189.7 million bags in 2026/27. Analysts at StoneX also warn of an over 80% probability of a strong El Nino, which could threaten flowering in Brazil and bring drought risk to Vietnam and Indonesia.

Whatever the futures market does, you can find a well-brewed cup nearby with Cortado.