coffee prices
USDA Forecasts Record Global Coffee Production for 2026/27
USDA projects world coffee production will rise 6% to a record 189.7 million bags in 2026/27, driven by a rebound in Brazil and record output in Ethiopia.
The USDA's July World Markets and Trade report forecasts global coffee production will climb 6% to a record 189.7 million 60-kg bags in the 2026/27 marketing year, up 10.8 million bags from the prior season. The agency credits improved growing conditions in Brazil.
Brazil and Ethiopia lead the gains
Brazil, the world's largest producer, is projected to harvest 71.9 million bags, up 14% and nearly 40% of global output. Arabica production overall is set to rise 12% year over year to an all-time high, while robusta is forecast to slip 0.7%.
Ethiopia is also headed for a record year, with production projected at 12.1 million bags, more than 500,000 bags above the prior season, on higher cultivated area and improved yields from replanted trees. Ethiopian exports are forecast to rise to 7.1 million bags.
Global exports are projected to reach 131.4 million bags and worldwide consumption to hit 179.7 million bags, both records. World ending stocks are forecast to grow to 26.3 million bags. Coffee futures fell on the news: September arabica dropped 2.23% and ICE robusta fell 2.27% the day the forecast was published.
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